Who's Ahead in the Blue Wall? Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin, Tie in Pennsylvania

Let's take a look at the latest polls from CNN. In the race for the White House, Vice President Kamala Harris seems to be doing pretty well in Michigan and Wisconsin. She's leading Trump by 48% to 43% in Michigan and 51% to 45% in Wisconsin. But hold on, because in Pennsylvania, it's a different story. The race is tied at 48% each, and that's a big deal because Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of the three states. Interestingly, only Michigan and Wisconsin still have ballots for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. , the former independent candidate who's now backing Trump. In Michigan, he's got 3% support, and in Wisconsin, 1%. So, it's not just Harris and Trump people are thinking about. But here's something cool. When you look at the voters who are really motivated to vote, Harris is still ahead in all three states. In Michigan, it's 51% for Harris and 45% for Trump. In Wisconsin, it's 52% for Harris and 47% for Trump. And in Pennsylvania, it's 50% for Harris and 47% for Trump. The polls show that most voters have already made up their minds. Only 8% in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan, and 6% in Wisconsin haven't decided yet. Harris is running close to Trump on handling the economy but is ahead on protecting democracy. In Michigan and Wisconsin, she's got an 8-point advantage on that. But in Pennsylvania, it's a narrow 4-point margin. Voters in Michigan and Wisconsin also think Harris is more honest and trustworthy. She's leading Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 points in Michigan. But in Pennsylvania, it's a closer 7-point margin. Harris is also seen as putting the country's interests first, with a 10-point margin in Wisconsin and 8-point margin in Michigan. But in Pennsylvania, people are split evenly between the two.

In Michigan and Wisconsin, more people think Harris cares about them than in Pennsylvania. That's a 9-point difference in the upper Midwest states compared to just a 3-point difference in Pennsylvania. In all three states, more people are backing Harris because of her leadership traits than her vision for the US. And about 4 in 10 of her supporters are voting more to oppose Trump than to support her. Harris is doing well with White voters and those without college degrees in Michigan and Wisconsin. She's even with Trump among White voters in Wisconsin and just 4 points behind in Michigan. But in Pennsylvania, Trump has a bigger lead among these groups. Black voters are heavily backing Harris, with 83% support in Michigan and 76% in Pennsylvania. And she's got a big lead among college-educated voters in all three states. The race is tighter in Pennsylvania, with rural voters heavily backing Trump. But Harris is leading in urban areas and doing well in the suburbs of all three states. In each of these states, there are close Senate races. In Michigan, Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is ahead of Republican Mike Rogers. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is just ahead of Dave McCormick. And in Wisconsin, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is tied with Republican Eric Hovde. Early voting is less common in these states than in Southern and Western battlegrounds. Only about a third or fewer voters have already cast their ballots. But those who have are heavily backing Harris. Most voters in all three states are confident their votes will be counted accurately. About 95% of Harris supporters are confident, compared to about 60% of Trump supporters.

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