Why Iran keeps its grip on the world’s oil highway

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway where a fifth of the planet’s oil moves. Iran sits on one side and Oman on the other. For decades this choke point gave Iran almost no leverage over global trade, but that changed when war broke out in late February. Since day one, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has made life risky for tankers and cargo ships. Mines, speed boats and sudden fees have stopped normal traffic. Oil prices jumped to their highest in years and countries that depend on Gulf fuel saw shortages. At home, those higher prices threaten to worsen inflation and hurt the U. S. leader at the ballot box this November. Washington insists Iran will blink and reopen the strait. The president even claimed U. S. forces could “take the oil and make a fortune. ” Yet most analysts see a different picture. They say Iran now understands its real power is not nuclear weapons but the ability to squeeze world energy markets whenever it wants. One expert put it simply: a weapon that disrupts oil flows is worth far more than anything hidden in a warhead.

Even if America tried to force its way in, the strait is just two miles wide at its narrowest. Ships and Marines would be sitting ducks. Iran could fight back with drones and missiles fired from deep inside its territory, making any closure cheap and easy to repeat. Some strategists argue Iran might never give up this card, because after the war it will need cash to rebuild and charging ships a fee is one quick way to raise it. The White House keeps saying the strait will open “very soon” and that Iran will not be allowed to regulate traffic. Yet the same officials admit allies who rely on Gulf oil have even more to lose—and therefore should take the lead. In other words, America wants the problem solved but is reluctant to pay the price itself.

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