CAR's Election: A Test of Stability and Democracy

In the Central African Republic (CAR), President Faustin-Archange Touadera is seeking a third term in office during national elections, highlighting improvements in security thanks to support from Russian mercenaries and Rwandan troops.

Key Points

• Touadera, a 68-year-old former mathematician, amended the constitution in 2023 to remove presidential term limits, a move critics argue is designed to extend his rule indefinitely.
• A Touadera victory, widely expected, could strengthen Russia's influence in CAR. Russia has provided security assistance in exchange for access to CAR's natural resources, including gold, diamonds, lithium, and uranium.
• The opposition, featuring former prime ministers Anicet-Georges Dologuele and Henri-Marie Dondra, faced attempts to disqualify them over allegations of holding foreign citizenship. Despite these challenges, they remain in the race.
• Touadera remains the frontrunner, benefiting from control over state institutions and greater financial resources than his opponents. Human Rights Watch reports that the opposition encounters more administrative obstacles than the ruling party.

Security and International Involvement

• In 2018, CAR became the first country in the region to engage Russia's Wagner mercenaries. Since then, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have also sought their assistance.
• Rwandan troops were deployed in 2020 to support Touadera's government amid unrest.
• This year, Touadera signed peace deals with rebel groups, improving security. However, the peace remains fragile, with rebels not fully disarmed and ongoing security threats, particularly from neighboring Sudan.

Election Details

The elections on Sunday will determine legislative, regional, and municipal positions. Provisional results are expected by January 5. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on February 15, with legislative runoffs on April 5.

Post-Election Uncertainty

There is a risk of unrest following the election, as opponents are likely to contest Touadera's anticipated victory. A smooth voting process could bolster Touadera's claim that stability is returning. Last year, the U.N. Security Council lifted an arms embargo and a separate embargo on diamond exports, supporting this narrative.